Bucks and Thunder each present matchup issues, but one team has clear edge

There is going to be plenty of star power in this game. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should finish in the top five in MVP voting at the end of the season. Damian Lillard has been one of the best offensive guards in the league and Jalen Williams is on track to make his first All-Star game.

Here’s who has the edge in the two semifinal games. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

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NBA Cup final pick, prediction, odds
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 18
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | 5:30 p.m. PT
Channel: TNT
Odds: Bucks +4.5 (-105) | Thunder -4.5 (-115)
This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season, although they had similar rosters last year and met twice. The Bucks impressively took the first game in Milwaukee, 118-93. The Thunder won the next one in Oklahoma City, which Antetokounmpo missed, by a score of 125-107.

The Thunder are rightly favored in this matchup. They have had the tougher path to the final, beating great teams in the Rockets and Mavericks to get to this point. The Bucks faced a decimated Magic team and an underdog Hawks team, winning two close contests.

The Thunder have good personnel to slow the Bucks down. Milwaukee has depended heavily on Antetokounmpo and Lillard for most of its offense. Nobody is slowing down Antetokounmpo, but Lillard can be bothered into bad shooting performances.

That may happen due to the sheer volume of quality perimeter defenders the Thunder can throw at Milwaukee. Lu Dort is arguably the best one-on-one guard defender in the league. Alex Caruso is right behind him and Cason Wallace is somewhere in the top 20. Those three are going to make life tough all day for Lillard.

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The Thunder are also going to turn the Bucks over a lot. Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in steals and deflections. Milwaukee doesn’t turn it over a ton, but it is a bad transition defense. When the Thunder do create chaos, they are going to get a lot of easy runouts for layups and 3s.

The Bucks don’t have great options to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander. Andre Jackson Jr. has been moved into the starting lineup and is a good perimeter defender, but his lack of offense makes it tough to play him for long stretches. The Thunder are a heavy screening team, so they will try to set up mismatches to attack other weak spots for the Bucks.

There are reasons to believe Milwaukee might be able to come out with an upset, too. Antetokounmpo has been playing like the best player in the league not named Nikola Jokic, and Oklahoma City doesn’t have a ton of great options to stop him. Williams has guarded centers for stretches this season, but not even he can stop Antetokounmpo one-on-one.

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